资产配置日报：趋势难寻-20251022

Market Overview - The stock and bond markets are currently lacking strong trends, with major indices opening lower and interrupting a recent recovery [1] - The A-share market saw a decline of 0.38% with a trading volume of 1.69 trillion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.94% and 1.41% respectively, while southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 10.018 billion HKD [1] Trading Volume Insights - The trading volume has decreased significantly, reaching a new low since August 6, indicating that many investors are choosing to remain on the sidelines [2] - The distribution of shares shows that high-positioned shares acquired after September 15 have increased, forming a peak at 6230, which aligns with the recent volatility in the market [2][3] - A significant increase in trading volume could signal a clear market direction, either through a substantial rise or fall [2][3] Short-term Market Sentiment - The consensus among short-term traders is to wait for increased trading volume, as extreme low volume often precedes significant market movements [3] - If the market experiences a volume increase alongside a price rise, it may lead to a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) scenario, while a volume increase with a price drop could indicate a loss of confidence in higher price levels [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is currently experiencing mixed performance, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rising slightly [4] - Recent changes in bond pricing logic reflect a lack of clear direction, making it unsuitable for heavy directional trading [4] - Investors are leaning towards high-yield assets to navigate this uncertain period, particularly in long-duration or lower-rated bonds [4] Structural Opportunities - There are potential short-term opportunities in high yield spreads, particularly in the tax spreads of government bonds [5] - The tax spread between 10-year government bonds has shown signs of narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is experiencing a sharp shift, with precious metals facing significant declines while "anti-involution" products are recovering [6][7] - Precious metals like gold and silver have seen substantial drops, with gold falling by 6.3% and silver by 8.7%, marking their largest single-day declines in years [6][7] - Conversely, "anti-involution" commodities such as lithium carbonate and coking coal are seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [6][7] Conclusion on Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by a dichotomy, with trading funds rapidly switching between macro-hedging logic in precious metals and fundamental-driven expectations in "anti-involution" sectors [8] - Precious metals may enter a phase of high volatility, while sectors like lithium and black metals are supported by improving fundamentals, indicating ongoing market differentiation [8]