马棕或继续累库，油脂承压回落

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - Protein Meals: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - Corn and Starch: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - Hogs: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - Natural Rubber: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - Sugar: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - Offset Paper: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - Logs: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oils and Fats: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - Protein Meals: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - Corn and Starch: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - Hogs: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - Natural Rubber: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - Cotton: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - Sugar: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - Pulp: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - Offset Paper: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - Logs: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Oils and Fats: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - Protein Meals: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - Corn and Starch: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - Hogs: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - Natural Rubber: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - Cotton: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - Sugar: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - Pulp: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - Offset Paper: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - Logs: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].