欧盟批准对俄罗斯新一轮制裁，巴西新年度大豆产量继续增加

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and macro - economic factors are causing significant fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets. - Different sectors are affected by specific events, such as sanctions, production changes, and policy adjustments, leading to diverse market trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian LNG and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats. - Gold price decline slowed, testing the 20 - day moving average support. The new sanctions pushed gold to rebound slightly, but the rebound space is limited, and the price has not stabilized yet. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price has increased long - short game and larger amplitude, not yet stabilized [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin, indicating the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - The short - term market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index fluctuated. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q3 revenue rebounded, but profit decreased by 31% more than expected. - The Fed considered reducing the bank capital requirement from 19% to a minimum of 3%. - PrimaLend applied for bankruptcy. - The market risk appetite decreased, and the three major stock indexes declined. - Investment advice: The US stock market shows a weak and volatile performance recently. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and maintain a bullish view overall [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.47 billion yuan. - The bond market fluctuated narrowly. The probability of double - cut (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio) is relatively low. - Investment advice: Observe the market sentiment and look for opportunities to buy mid - line long positions on dips [22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's September soybean crushing volume was 4.133 million tons. - Abiove predicted that Brazil's 25/26 annual soybean production will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons. - Investment advice: With the US government shutdown, focus on Brazil's weather and Sino - US relations. The domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to remain volatile [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Infrastructure central enterprises' new "new infrastructure" project contracts increased significantly in the first three quarters. - Steel prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The market has limited contradictions and driving forces. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the near term [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month. - The oil market corrected significantly. The increase in production reduced the possibility of tight supply in the fourth quarter. - Investment advice: After the over - expected production data in October, the confidence in the fourth - quarter palm oil price increase declined. Consider buying on dips around 9,000 yuan/ton and adopt a range - trading strategy [30]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Newcastle Port's coal transportation volume in September was 14.0804 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.57%. - The coal price was supported by the increase in power consumption and the contraction of supply. - Investment advice: Although the power consumption in 8 provinces decreased after the end of high - temperature weather, the coming of the cold wave in the north and the long - lasting winter are expected to strongly support the steam coal price [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate in North China decreased slightly, while that in Northeast China increased. - The futures rice - flour price difference rebounded significantly and is expected to continue to repair. - Investment advice: The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to continue to repair [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first heavy - haul train of Simandou was successfully dispatched. - The iron ore price fluctuated weakly. The performance of finished products was mediocre, and the inventory and profit pressure of steel mills restricted the price. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be structurally weak, and there is no clear trend for now [35]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market was weakly stable. - The futures price of the main contract CJ601 declined. - Investment advice: The next week is the key period for the formation of the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see before the acquisition price is formed [37]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports increased seasonally. - The futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate narrowly. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The risk - return ratio of short - selling is not good, and it may be necessary to wait for the right time to go long [38]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic module exports in September were 25.63GW, a 6.0% month - on - month decrease and a 46.8% year - on - year increase. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The production in October is expected to be about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to decline significantly from November to December. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Group and its concerted actors pledged 49.91% of their shares in total. - The production in the north increased, while that in the south decreased. The inventory increased. - Investment advice: The fundamental situation is weakening, and the price has a clear lower limit. It is more cost - effective to buy on dips [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Hebei restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, observe the price in a volatile manner. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [47]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - MMG's zinc ore production in Q3 increased by 26%. - The LME zinc price fluctuated upward, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to wait and see. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy for domestic and foreign markets [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved. - The customs clearance of scrap copper imports became stricter, and the import volume in October may decline. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a high level. Consider buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, wait and see [54]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rongbai Technology achieved 10 - ton - level shipments of all - solid - state cathode materials. - The price was supported by the improvement of inventory data during the peak demand season. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the peak demand in the year. Consider reverse arbitrage for LC2511 - LC2601 and positive arbitrage for LC2601 against more distant contracts [55]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in Q3 was 46,800 tons, basically the same as the previous year. - The global nickel inventory increased, and the price fluctuated narrowly. - Investment advice: The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips. Speculative traders can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. - The US C3 inventory increased. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. - The US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, causing the oil price to rise significantly. - Investment advice: The short - term geopolitical conflict will cause disturbances [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - An East China refinery has a plan to shut down for maintenance. - The PX spot market is tight, and the price rebounded. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the space may be limited by the oil price [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated. - The demand side is stable, and the supply side is expected to increase. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the upward space is limited [70]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The production enterprise inventory was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. - The futures and spot prices decreased, and the spot price decreased more. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [73]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of urea enterprises increased, but the inventory accumulation slope slowed down. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner in the short term [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was basically stable. - The pulp futures price was relatively strong, but the upward space is limited due to the poor supply - demand situation. - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76].