研究所晨会观点精萃-20251023

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the macro - financial situation, including stocks, bonds, and various commodity sectors, on October 23, 2025, considering factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [2]. 1. Macro - financial Core View - Sino - US game persists in the short - term, global risk appetite cools, domestic economic growth accelerates, and policy support increases. Market trading focuses on domestic stimulus policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2]. Asset Recommendations - Stocks: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2][3]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - Commodities - Black Metals: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2]. - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level correction, cautious waiting [2]. 2. Stock Index Market Performance - Domestic stocks decline slightly due to the drag of precious metals, base metals, and battery sectors [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - Domestic economic growth accelerates, Sino - US game affects risk preference, and increased policy support boosts risk preference. Market trading focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward drive weakening [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term cautious long [3]. 3. Precious Metals Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. Shanghai gold futures dropped 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and spot gold fell 0.73% to $4093.77 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 0.04% to 11331 yuan/kg [3]. Trend Analysis - Short - term high - level correction, long - term upward pattern unchanged [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term: Reduce long positions and wait; long - term: Buy on dips [3]. 4. Black Metals Steel - Market Performance: On Wednesday, steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume [4]. - Fundamental Analysis: Macro - level factors cause market divergence. Real demand is weak but improving marginally, with inventory decreasing and apparent consumption rising. Supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits [4]. - Trend Judgment: No trending market, limited upside and downside in the short - term [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded [5][6]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Iron water output is expected to decline further. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126000 tons this week, and arrivals decreased by 526400 tons. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines narrowed [6]. - Trend Judgment: Range - bound thinking [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Market Performance: On Wednesday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly [7]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Alloy demand decreased due to lower steel output. Silicon manganese production capacity utilization increased slightly. Silicon iron prices and raw material prices were stable [7]. - Trend Judgment: Range - bound [7]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Market Performance: On Wednesday, Shanghai copper was strong. US copper inventory is at a historical high, and an Indonesian mine's suspension supports prices [9]. - Supply - demand Analysis: The suspension is temporary, and next year is a year of high copper supply growth. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected [9]. - Trend Judgment: High - level shock [9]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, supported by the overseas market [9]. - Supply - demand Analysis: An overseas smelter's accident affected a small amount of capacity. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are poor, but market expectations are neutral - bullish. London aluminum inventory decreased [9][10]. - Operation Suggestion: Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term [10]. Tin - Supply - demand Analysis: Supply is affected by Indonesian policies and Myanmar's production. Demand is weak in traditional industries and affected by pre - installed demand in the photovoltaic industry. High prices suppress demand, and inventory decreased this week [11]. - Trend Judgment: High - level shock [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.63% to 76740 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Supply and demand both increased, with strong seasonal demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. - Trend Judgment: Bullish shock, pay attention to resistance levels [12]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.06% to 8500 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Production reached a new high, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces pressure from warehouse receipts [12]. - Trend Judgment: Range - bound, pay attention to cost support [12]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.55% to 50235 yuan/ton, with decreased positions. Warehouse receipts increased [13]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Supply is high, demand is low, and wait for the implementation of state - reserve news [13][14]. - Trend Judgment: Pay attention to spot price support [14]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market Performance: US sanctions on Russian oil companies and EIA inventory data led to a significant rebound in oil prices [15]. - Trend Judgment: Long - term downward expectation remains [15]. Asphalt - Market Performance: Oil price rebound drove asphalt prices up, but the basis is low, and trading volume is light. Factory inventory pressure persists, and social inventory is being depleted in East China [15]. - Trend Judgment: Pay attention to the rebound space of crude oil, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [15]. PX - Market Performance: Crude oil price rebound and processing fee repair demand are expected to lead to a range - bound adjustment. PXN spread rebounded slightly [16]. - Trend Judgment: Tight - balance in October, likely to follow the energy - chemical sector to rebound slightly and then stabilize [16]. PTA - Market Performance: Crude oil price rebound drove PTA up, but demand is low, processing fee is low, and inventory is accumulating. Basis is negative, and short - selling positions are increasing [16]. - Operation Suggestion: Short on rallies, limited follow - up to crude oil [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: Price is at a low level, port inventory increased, and demand is weak. Oil price rebound drove a slight increase in futures prices [17]. - Trend Judgment: Likely to be weak again [17]. Short - fiber - Market Performance: Followed the polyester sector and oil prices to rebound slightly [17]. - Trend Judgment: Weak - shock pattern, follow the polyester sector and consider shorting on rallies [17]. Methanol - Market Performance: Domestic methanol prices are mixed, and inventory increased. Supply decreased in the short - term, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand structure [19]. - Trend Judgment: Range - bound in the short - term [19]. PP - Market Performance: Market prices are range - bound, and inventory decreased [20]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Crude oil price recovery improved market sentiment, but prices are still weak [20]. - Trend Judgment: Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand [20]. LLDPE - Market Performance: Prices are adjusted, with some regional increases. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is differentiated, and the overall demand support is limited [20]. - Trend Judgment: Market is under pressure [20]. Urea - Market Performance: Prices are stable. The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota has limited impact on urea prices [21]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, demand from compound fertilizers is ending, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking [21]. - Trend Judgment: May rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is a risk of decline later [21]. 7. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose 0.12% to 1049.75 on the overnight market [22]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentine weather is good. Sino - US soybean trade is the key factor for the future [22]. - Trend Judgment: Narrow - range shock, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean Meal: Oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a phenomenon of urging delivery. Mills are in loss, and the willingness to support prices is strong. There is a supply gap risk before the South American new soybean harvest [22][23]. - Rapeseed Meal: Supply is tight due to low operating rate, and it follows soybean meal's trend [23]. - Trend Judgment: Soybean meal may stabilize after an oversold decline [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil: Short - term prices may be dragged down by palm oil. It is in the peak season, but trading is unchanged. The price difference between soybean and palm oil provides consumption expectations [23]. - Rapeseed Oil: Before the supply of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil, inventory reduction supports the basis [23]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Overnight CBOT soybean oil decline may drag down palm oil futures. Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and domestic inventory increased [24]. - Trend Judgment: MPOC expects prices to be stable above 4400 ringgit/ton for the rest of 2025 [24]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn prices are strong, and new - season corn is being listed. Demand is positive, and farmers may be reluctant to sell [24]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: Breeding profits are in loss, and the supply peak has not arrived. Pig prices rebounded slightly, and the sentiment of secondary fattening is cautious [25]. - Trend Judgment: Difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice, but the risk of extreme decline is low [25].