格林大华期货早盘提示：股指-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on IF and IH, staying neutral on IC and IM in the stock index futures of the macro and financial sector [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese stocks will have a more sustained upward trend, with the MSCI China Index expected to rise by about 30% by the end of 2027, driven by 12% trend - like earnings growth and 5% - 10% re - evaluation potential [1][2]. - The low bond yields and the discounted valuation of Chinese stocks compared to global stocks, along with the expected loosening of Fed policy and potential decline in China's domestic real interest rates, make Chinese stocks' valuations attractive [1]. - Chinese capital may be undergoing a structural shift towards stocks, driven by trillions of dollars of potential asset re - allocation funds, and China has re - entered the sight of overseas investors [1][2][3]. - Stabilizing the stock market is crucial for boosting consumers' spending confidence, as it can inject capital into the real economy and drive consumption through wealth, psychological, and expectation effects [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the two markets opened lower and then oscillated strongly, with the banking sector continuing to strengthen. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.66 trillion yuan, showing a contraction in volume and a decline in selling pressure [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,592 points, down 15 points (- 0.33%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 3,010 points, up 2 points (0.09%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,128 points, down 57 points (- 0.80%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,312 points, down 31 points (- 0.43%) [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were oil and gas resource ETFs, bank ETF funds, leading home appliance ETFs, education ETFs, and real estate ETF funds; those with the highest losses were gold stock ETFs, power grid equipment ETFs, and photovoltaic leading ETFs [1]. - Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were oilfield services engineering, geothermal energy, wind power equipment, shale gas, and home appliance parts indices; those with the highest losses were precious metals, forestry, coke processing, feed, and consumer electronics indices [1]. - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net outflows of 5 billion, 4.7 billion, 3.3 billion, and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the AI boom has changed corporate profit models, and profit growth from AI - based capital expenditure is underway. Counter - cyclical regulatory policies have reignited market hopes for corporate profit recovery, and the "going global" strategy demonstrates China's enhanced competitiveness [1]. - Since September 15, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen by 44%, with a 33% jump in the past ten days. The capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate has increased [2]. - Meta and private equity giant Blue Owl raised $27 billion through private bond issuance to build data centers. BlackRock subscribed for over $3 billion, becoming the second - largest investor, and Pimco subscribed for $18 billion, ranking first [2]. - OpenAI launched a new AI - driven web browser, ChatGPT Atlas, to compete directly with Google's Chrome browser [2]. - Anthropic is in talks with Google about a potential cloud - computing agreement worth tens of billions of dollars, which will provide large - scale computing power support for Claude [2]. - The zinc market of the London Metal Exchange is facing its most severe squeeze in decades. Due to production cuts by Western smelters and continuous depletion of inventories, the available zinc inventory on the LME is less than one - day's demand, and the premium of spot zinc prices over three - month contracts has soared to $323 per ton [2]. Market Logic - The stock market has warmed up, and investor confidence has gradually increased. As of October 13, the number of new A - share accounts exceeded 20 million, a year - on - year increase of over 50%, which has effectively increased residents' property income [2]. - Many foreign institutions believe that the recent valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, making them attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against the risk of US dollar assets [2]. Future Market Outlook - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan, with equity - based ETFs contributing 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% [3]. - The market is still in a defensive state, and the volatile market is difficult to change. The market is waiting for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month [3]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the volatile market is difficult to change, and the market is waiting for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is in a volatile and consolidating state, it is advisable to wait and see [3].