能源化策略周报：地缘再次扰动原油，化?有些供应减量担忧-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, mainly including "oscillation", "oscillation - slightly stronger", "oscillation - slightly weaker", etc. For example, the mid - term outlooks for most products like crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are "oscillation" [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US situation and the US - India trade agreement have led to a rebound in crude oil prices. The short - term rhythm of crude oil is determined by geopolitics, while the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [1]. - With the rebound of crude oil and the increase of chemical coal prices, the chemical industry has also started to rebound. There are minor disruptions in the supply of some chemical products, but the overall pattern has not changed significantly [2]. - For different energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks have increased, and Russian oil exports are facing new challenges. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and EIA data shows a small reduction in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week. The downward trend of crude oil prices may be delayed, and the spread between domestic and foreign markets is expected to widen [7]. - Asphalt: The futures price has broken through the 3200 pressure level. OPEC+ production increase, Saudi Arabia's export price adjustment, and other factors have led to a rebound in asphalt prices. However, the spot price has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure is still large [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, driving up the futures price. Although there are some negative factors, the market is mainly affected by geopolitical upgrades [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, but its current valuation is low [10]. - PX: Low prices have attracted market buying interest, and the short - term support has been strengthened under the improvement of supply - demand conditions [11]. - PTA: Under supply - demand pressure, the spot processing fee and basis have weakened significantly [12]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream consumers tend to buy on rising prices, and the sustainability of increased trading volume needs to be observed [20]. - Bottle - Chip: It follows the rise of polyester raw materials [21]. - Propylene: The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates [3]. - PP: The rebound of oil prices and minor support from maintenance lead to oscillation [28]. - Plastic: The rebound of oil prices and increased downstream trading volume result in oscillation [27]. - Styrene: It oscillates upward with the rebound of crude oil [16]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low valuation with weak expectations [31]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is stable, and the futures market oscillates [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.05, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 6 [33]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 81 with a change of - 102, and the number of warehouse receipts is 13040 [34]. - Inter - variety Spread: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 164 with a change of 57 [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the given text. It only lists the names of these products [36][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The commodity 20 index is 2531.94 with a decline of 0.48%, the industrial products index is 2204.41 with an increase of 0.87%, and the energy index on October 22, 2025, has a daily increase of 2.01% [279][281].