Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the market faces uncertainties, but in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, it is advisable to buy on dips; for the bond market, it may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect; for precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view and wait to buy on dips; for various commodities, different strategies are recommended according to their fundamentals [4][6][8]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: Shenzhen supports mergers and acquisitions in strategic emerging industries; from October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year; the EU will discuss rare - earth export controls with China; Trump said a trade deal might be reached at APEC [2]. - Strategy: After a continuous rise, the market's risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.02%, and - 0.01% respectively. Japan plans an economic stimulus package, and China's foreign - related payments in the first three quarters reached a record high. The central bank conducted a net injection of 947 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The short - term decline in risk appetite benefits the bond market. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may improve in terms of supply - demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold fell 1.56%, and silver rose 0.04%. The macro - environment is favorable for precious metals, but the持仓 needs to be consolidated. Overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the release of US CPI data is awaited [7]. - Strategy: Maintain a long - term bullish view. Wait for the price to stabilize and buy on dips. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 928 - 982 yuan/g, and for silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kg [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic spot premium was general. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the mood has improved. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices were strong. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [12]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade tensions have eased. The domestic inventory is low, and prices may rise further in the short term [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the import was at a loss [14]. - Strategy: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and overseas structural risks were high. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [15]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand improved [16]. - Strategy: The supply and demand of lead are favorable, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The cost was stable, and the demand for intermediate products increased [17]. - Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. In the long term, the price has support [17]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply was tight, and the demand was mixed [18]. - Strategy: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price increased [19]. - Strategy: The fundamentals have improved, but pay attention to the supply recovery and hedging pressure. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [20]. - Strategy: The mine price has short - term support, but the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton [21][22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - Strategy: The market confidence has recovered. Pay attention to the downstream demand. If it continues, the market may continue to improve [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The inventory increased slightly [24]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve the mood, but the high - level warehouse receipt limits the upward space [25]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The inventory decreased slightly, and the demand recovered weakly [27]. - Strategy: The short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations. In the long term, the trend remains unchanged [28]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased [29]. - Strategy: The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [30]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory also increased [31][33]. - Strategy: Glass demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. Soda ash supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both may maintain a weak trend [32][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot price was higher than the futures price [35]. - Strategy: They are likely to follow the black - sector market. Pay attention to potential driving factors in the manganese ore sector [36][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices fell slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. The supply and demand of both have different characteristics [39][41]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon may fluctuate in the short term. Polysilicon is expected to have a phased correction. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [40][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and stock - market benefits. There are different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - Strategy: The price is stable in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long, and partially build a hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined - oil prices rose. The inventory of refined oil decreased [51]. - Strategy: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices changed slightly. The import was delayed, and the demand was weak [53]. - Strategy: The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices changed slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [55]. - Strategy: The price is at a low level, and the cost support is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand had different changes [57]. - Strategy: The price of styrene may stop falling. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [58]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - Strategy: The supply is excessive, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased slightly [61]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [63]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices rose. The supply was high, and the demand was low [65]. - Strategy: The inventory is difficult to reduce. It mainly follows the crude - oil price. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [68]. - Strategy: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose. The supply pressure is high, and the demand increased slightly [70]. - Strategy: The supply is excessive, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices rose. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was recovering [73]. - Strategy: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term supply pressure is large. Consider shorting on rallies [74]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [75]. - Strategy: The spot may rebound slightly, but the upward space is limited. The futures may maintain a weak bottom - building trend. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Soybean meal prices fell. The supply pressure was large, and the demand was weak [77]. - Strategy: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [79]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Palm oil export increased, and production also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats fell [80]. - Strategy: Palm oil supply may reverse. It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer signal [81]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices fell. Brazil's production is expected to increase, and the export has increased [82]. - Strategy: The overall supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices oscillated slightly. The acquisition price increased slightly [84]. - Strategy: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The upward space is limited in the short term [85].
文字早评2025/10/23星期四：宏观金融类-20251023
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:20