Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]
能源化工日报-20251023
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:15