Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - Energy and Chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - Government Bonds: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - Glass: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - Aluminum: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - Tin: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - Gold and Silver: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - Caustic Soda: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - Styrene: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - Rubber: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - Urea: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - Polyolefins: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - Soda Ash: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - PTA: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - Apples: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - Jujubes: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - Eggs: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - Corn: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - Oils: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月23日-20251023
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:33