软商品日报：巴西二季度压榨量同比增加，白糖盘整-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of delayed sugar factory start - up in Inner Mongolia and typhoon - affected sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking. [1][3] - Cotton has bottom - line support as commercial inventories are decreasing and the cotton textile peak season is approaching. Although the meteorological conditions during the growth period were suitable and the picking progress in Xinjiang is ahead of last year, the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan with a potential downward risk after the centralized listing. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,750.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,730.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,600.0 yuan. [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 15.13, with a change of - 0.72%. US cotton closed at 63.65, with a change of - 1.18%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides bottom - line support for cotton prices. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,313.0, with a change of - 0.75%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,565.0, with a change of - 0.54%. [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar decreased from 15.24 to 15.13, a change of - 0.72%; US cotton decreased from 64.41 to 63.65, a change of - 1.18%. [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar decreased from 5,770.0 to 5,750.0, a change of - 0.35%; Kunming sugar decreased from 5,740.0 to 5,730.0, a change of - 0.17%. The cotton index 328 increased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of 0.30%; Xinjiang cotton increased from 14,550.0 to 14,600.0, a change of 0.34%. [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 43.0, a change of 2.38%; SR05 - 09 decreased from - 14.0 to - 18.0, a change of 28.57%; SR09 - 01 increased from - 28.0 to - 25.0, a change of - 10.71%. CF01 - 05 increased from - 60.0 to - 40.0, a change of - 33.33%; CF05 - 09 increased from - 170.0 to - 165.0, a change of - 2.94%; CF09 - 01 decreased from 230.0 to 205.0, a change of - 10.87%. [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA remained at 75.6, a change of 0.00%. [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1,567.5, a change of 0.00%. [4] Options - SR601C5400 has an implied volatility of 0.0767 and a historical volatility of 7.17 for the futures underlying SR601; SR601P5400 has an implied volatility of 0.076. CF601C13600 has an implied volatility of 0.0786 and a historical volatility of 7.98 for the futures underlying CF601; CF601P13600 has an implied volatility of 0.0781. [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8,376.0 to 8,313.0, a change of - 0.75%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2,579.0 to 2,565.0, a change of - 0.54%. [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia affected sugar beet sugar production, and typhoons in September and October affected sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi. The impact on sugar production needs further tracking. [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the growth period were suitable, and as of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see [3]