期货品种策略日报：WTI原油-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. The prices of these products are influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. Crude oil shows signs of stabilizing, and short - term prices may be repaired. Although the fundamentals of PTA have improved slightly due to warm - keeping demand, its price will still follow the cost. The PR market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and its price also follows the cost [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream Prices: On October 22, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were $58.50/barrel and $62.59/barrel, up 2.20% and 2.07% respectively. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $551.50/ton, up 2.13%. The prices of various PX - related products also showed different degrees of increase, with the PX CFR China main port price at $798.00/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - PTA Prices: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4482 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 545 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market was 4370 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, while the outer - market index was $589.00/ton, down 0.17% [1]. - PX Prices: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6450 yuan/ton, up 1.86%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6224 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The PXN spread was $246.50/ton, up 1.16%, and the PX - MX spread was $125.50/ton, up 7.11% [1]. - PR Prices: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5600 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5670 yuan/ton and 5720 yuan/ton, up 0.71% and 1.06% respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester fibers were stable, except for the price index of polyester short - fibers, which was 6310 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on October 22, 2025. The production - sales ratios of polyester products varied, with the production - sales ratio of polyester filaments at 53.33%, down 32.88 percentage points, while those of polyester short - fibers and polyester chips were 107.77% and 141.10%, up 41.19 and 47.57 percentage points respectively [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - PX: International oil prices continued to rise on October 22, 2025, supported by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the US plan to purchase oil to replenish the strategic reserve. Although the cost - driving effect was average, domestic refinery maintenance plans led to expectations of supply reduction. The demand side of PTA was okay, but market trading was cautious. The PX2601 contract closed at 6450 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: The cost support of PTA slightly recovered. The TA2601 contract closed at 4482 yuan/ton. Although the PTA factory had low profits, it did not further reduce production. The polyester filament production - sales were booming on Tuesday, and the potential reduction of a PX device in East China boosted the market. However, new PTA devices were about to start trials or restart, and the weaving orders were unstable with high坯布 inventory [2]. - PR: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5620 - 5720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The rebound of PTA and bottle - chip futures pushed up the supply - side quotes, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The PR2601 contract closed at 5600 yuan/ton [2].