原油：利好共振，短期修复性反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that crude oil is experiencing a short - term restorative rebound due to favorable factors. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, showing a neutral outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Sections a. International Crude Oil Prices - On October 23, 2025, WTI December crude oil futures rose $1.26 per barrel, a 2.20% increase, to $58.50 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $1.27 per barrel, a 2.07% increase, to $62.59 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 7.30 yuan per barrel, a 1.65% increase, to 449.10 yuan per barrel [1]. b. Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: All listed arbitrage windows are closed, with negative arbitrage values ranging from -$1.12 to -$7.3 per barrel [2]. - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Forties against Bonny Light has a positive arbitrage of $1.41, and Saharan Blend against Bonny Light has the highest positive arbitrage of $2.86 [4]. - North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, and Saharan Blend against Forties have positive arbitrage, with values of $0.68, $1.24, and $0.46 respectively [5]. - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All listed arbitrage windows against Urals are closed, with large negative values, the most uneconomical being Ekofisk against Urals at -$9.7 [5]. - Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage: Napo against Dubai has the highest positive arbitrage of $3.05, and Mars against Dubai has a slight positive arbitrage of $0.88 [6]. c. Key Market News - The US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the blacklist, along with their Russian subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 this year) [10]. - EIA report for the week of October 17: US crude exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease); SPR inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase) [10].