Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Core Viewpoints - After a strong rebound, the market shows a series of changes such as rising grain - selling profits, emerging profits on the futures market, and increasing acquisition costs. The short - term upward trend has slowed down. The spot market is mainly stable, and the futures market has a slight correction. The 01 contract closed lower yesterday, bottomed out and rebounded during the session, closing at 4057 yuan, and the night session was consolidated strongly, closing at 4063 yuan [4]. - This year, the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs have changed the previous price trend of unilateral decline during the new harvest season. Currently, the game between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, but the pressure of new grain listing still needs to be released. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended under the condition of dispersed selling pressure. In addition, due to the good price situation, the state - reserve acquisition has not yet exerted its strength, which also provides a bottom - support expectation for the later market. Overall, the fundamental pressure of the domestic soybean market has been alleviated, and the price performance is better than the same period in previous years. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the release of the back - end selling pressure [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Strategies Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 18.6% [3]. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 [3]. - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price with a hedging ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs (short spot exposure), it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. Market Data Spot Price and Basis | Location | Spot Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | Harbin (Domestic Grade 3) | 3890 | - 167 | | Nenjiang (Domestic Grade 3) | 3840 | - 221 | | Jiamusi (Domestic Grade 3) | 3920 | - 141 | | Changchun (Domestic Grade 3) | 3970 | - 91 | [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 21 (yuan) | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Daily Change (yuan) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 4038 | 4035 | - 3 | - 0.07% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 4061 | 4057 | - 4 | - 0.10% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 4064 | 4064 | 0 | 0.00% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4100 | 4101 | 1 | 0.02% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4098 | 4096 | - 2 | - 0.05% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4100 | 4096 | - 4 | - 0.10% | [7] Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - After a strong rebound, the short - term upward trend has slowed down. The new grain listing pressure needs to be released, and it remains to be seen whether the downstream acquisition can provide support. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended, but the state - reserve acquisition provides a bottom - support expectation [4]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production in the southern region has led to changes in the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and the grain sources in the northeastern producing areas are valued, which supports the price. - The debt - repayment operation under two - way auctions supports short - term demand, and the rigid acquisition in the sales areas increases as the weather gets colder [6]. Bearish Factors - During the new grain listing period, the spot pressure still needs to be digested, but the selling pressure is relatively dispersed. - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the prices of oil and meal are low, which suppresses the domestic soybean crushing demand, and the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [6]
产业风险管理日报：南华豆-20251023
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:28