Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the screw - thread and hot - rolled coil, the apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than the same period last year. The holiday factor led to an increase in building material inventory, and the slow decline in total inventory suppressed the futures price. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Technically, if the futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil continue to rise, it means the end of the downward trend [2]. - For iron ore, the high iron - making output of sample steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. But the decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventory during the consumption peak suppresses the futures price. The slow reduction of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Screw - thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand: Apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than last year. Holiday led to inventory increase, slow total inventory decline, and cost supported by strong coking coal and coke. Steel mill profit decline may lead to production cuts [2]. - Technical analysis: Futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil have rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Continued rise means the end of the downward trend [2]. - Operation suggestions: Hold short positions lightly. Stop profit if there is a sharp and rapid decline. Exit during the subsequent correction if the futures price continues to rebound [2]. - Data summary: - Prices: Screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices increased. For example, the closing price of the screw - thread steel main contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from last week [3]. - Basis and spreads: Most basis and spreads changed, such as the screw - thread steel main basis decreased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [3]. - Production: The output of screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill screw - thread steel output was 201.16 million tons, down 1.10% from last week [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.66%, while the social and mill inventories of screw - thread steel decreased [3]. - Apparent demand: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 19.03% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - Supply and demand: High iron - making output supports demand, but profit decline may lead to production cuts and price suppression. Global shipments are high, and port inventory increase suppresses the futures price [4]. - Technical analysis: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. - Data summary: - Prices: Most iron ore spot and futures prices changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 774 yuan/dry ton, up 0.58% from the previous day [5]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and futures month - to - month spreads changed, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 41.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - Shipments and arrivals: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. The northern six - port arrival volume decreased by 15.48% [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased by 1.81%, while the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 2.82% [5]. 3. Industry News - In Wuhai and Qipanjing, most open - pit coal mines are shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring. Environmental inspections are strict, and coal shipments are restricted, but the impact on production is small [6]. - Some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production in October, but the winter production enthusiasm is low. The current daily output in Northeast China has decreased by 4.4 million tons [6]. - All 4.3 - meter coke ovens in Inner Mongolia were shut down by December 31, 2024, with a total coking capacity of 55.7 million tons [7]. - Inner Mongolia requires all cement clinker production lines to implement off - peak production from November 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [7]. - Vale's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase. Sales were 86 million tons, up 11.21% quarter - on - quarter and 5.1% year - on - year [7]. - As of the week ending October 22, the national key steel product output increased by 0.77 million tons, the factory inventory decreased by 7.84 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 14.88 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 33.17 million tons [7].
黑色板块日报-20251023
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:34