镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱不锈钢偏弱震荡-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: On October 21, the nickel market had a weak fundamental situation with pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 21, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation and weak cost support. It was expected that the price would fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy was to sell short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Data: - On October 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 430 to 520 yuan/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 60,391 hands (- 8,453), and the open interest was 50,388 hands (- 8,270). The LME nickel price fell 0.08%. The ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures prices was 7.97 (+ 0.04) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased by 158 tons to 27,026 tons. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 250,476 tons, with registered warrants decreasing by 244,356 tons and cancelled warrants decreasing by 6,120 tons [2]. - Spot Market: The spot market trading was average, and the premium of the basis decreased. The prices of nickel ore remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened. In October, domestic nickel - iron production increased, and Indonesian production also increased, leading to a reduction in nickel - iron inventory. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - Demand Side: Ternary cathode production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. Stainless Steel Market - Futures Data: - On October 21, the stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) showed an upward - oscillating trend. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract was 126,078 hands (+ 1,298), and the open interest was 188,332 hands (- 9,862) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621,700 tons (+ 2,300) [2]. - Spot Market: The spot market trading was acceptable, and the premium of the basis decreased. In October, stainless - steel production schedules increased, but 300 - series production schedules decreased. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Inventory Data - Nickel: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 10.53 million wet tons (+ 0.03 million), SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 3,100 tons, and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 47,708 tons (+ 4,014) [2]. - Stainless Steel: The total stainless - steel spot inventory was 915,700 tons (- 10,100), with 200 - series at 172,200 tons (- 8,700), 300 - series at 621,700 tons (+ 2,300), and 400 - series at 121,800 tons (- 3,700) [2]. Industry News Vale's nickel sales in the third quarter were 42,900 tons, and its nickel production was 46,800 tons [1].