棉花：期货反弹基差偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures rebounded while the basis was weak. The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market had mainly rigid - demand transactions, with the spot basis being stable but weakening in some areas. The cotton yarn market was divided, with limited actual price - increase space due to insufficient downstream orders [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,535 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% daily increase and 13,540 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.04% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,760 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% daily increase and 19,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.05% increase. ICE cotton 12 was at 63.65 cents/pound with a - 1.18% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 268,059 lots, a decrease of 64,803 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 916,634 lots, an increase of 7,855 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 10,964 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,235 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,565, a decrease of 14, and the effective forecast was 286, an increase of 23. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 6, an increase of 6, and the effective forecast was 0, a decrease of 6 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a - 0.03% change; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan with a - 0.03% change; the price in Shandong was 14,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan with a 0.27% change; the price in Hebei was 14,756 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan with a 0.33% change. The 3128B index was 14,772 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan with a 0.30% change. The international cotton index M was 72.96 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent with a 1.09% change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan with a 0.15% change, and the arrival price was 21,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.06% change [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot transactions were mainly for rigid demand, with the spot basis stable but weakening in some areas. The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was still stable and slightly increasing, and different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different price quotes and sales bases [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market was divided. The sales of low - count rotor - spun yarn and yarn related to autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but overall transactions were average. Some spinning mills tried to raise prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, but the actual price - increase space was limited due to insufficient downstream new orders. Market purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the spinning mills' inventory was generally low [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]