工业硅、多晶硅日评：关注供给端变动-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still shows a certain increase while the demand improvement is limited. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, recent news on the supply side has led to an upward movement in the polysilicon futures market. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is little possibility of concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upside of the futures market. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained stable at 9,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 0.24% to 8,485 yuan/ton. [1] - Supply and Demand: In October, the southwest production area is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or halt production by the end of this month or next month, while the operation rate of northern silicon enterprises has increased. Overall, the total operation rate has increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain their pre - holiday operation level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream has limited willingness to stock up at low prices. [1] - Investment Strategy: The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range trading. [1] Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N - type dense material remained stable at 51.50 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material remained at 53.00 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained at 50.50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 0.80% to 50,310 yuan/ton. [1] - Supply and Demand: Silicon material enterprises are maintaining a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity coming online. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output in October is expected to increase slightly. During the National Day holiday, the market trading was light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October. [1] - Investment Strategy: Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is little possibility of concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upside of the futures market. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1] Industry News - On October 15, 2025, a 100MW photovoltaic project in the oil and gas industry in Luntai County, Tarim Oilfield, Xinjiang officially started construction. The project is expected to be completed by December 30, 2025, and is planned to be connected to the grid on January 30, 2026, with full - capacity grid connection on April 30, 2026. After operation, it will generate 160 million kWh of electricity annually, replace 49,700 tons of standard coal, and reduce 129,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. [1] - In October 2025, China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. signed three new - energy general contracting contracts with Saudi partners to jointly build a 5GW clean - energy project worth approximately $2.745 billion (about 19.554 billion yuan). The project includes 3GW of wind power and 2GW of photovoltaic power. [1]