Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It considers factors such as market performance, fundamentals (supply and demand), and geopolitical events to make trading suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold priced in London continued its weak oscillation on Tuesday, with strong support at $4000/ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US government shutdown, energy policies, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings were noted [2]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Due to short - term profit - taking by funds, gold and silver prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. Silver - Market performance: Not separately elaborated, but mentioned in the context of gold market analysis [2]. - Fundamentals: Similar to gold, with changes in inventories and ETF holdings [2]. - Trading strategy: Reduce long positions as mentioned in the gold section [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.38% to CNY 21,045/ton, and the LME price was $2816/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable [3]. - Trading strategy: With positive macro sentiment, improved downstream demand, and aluminum ingot de - stocking, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.68% to CNY 2829/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production cuts due to ore supply limitations or production plan adjustments, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - covering of main shorts led to a small rebound, but the oversupply situation remains. The rebound space is expected to be limited [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 11 - contract closed at CNY 8485/ton, down CNY 20 from the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased this week, and social inventory accumulation accelerated. The demand for polysilicon supported the market, while organic silicon production decreased slightly, and the aluminum alloy start - up rate was stable [3][4]. - Trading strategy: The short - term trend is affected by the photovoltaic industry chain's start - up rate. The price is expected to oscillate between CNY 8000 and CNY 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2601 closed at CNY 77,120/ton, up 1.5% [4]. - Fundamentals: The production of lithium carbonate reached a new high, imports decreased, and the demand for cathode materials increased. It is expected to maintain a tight balance in October [4]. - Trading strategy: The current high - demand for spot goods is expected to keep the market in short supply. The price is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the de - stocking of warehouse receipts and be cautious about chasing up [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 11 - contract closed at CNY 50,310/ton, down CNY 405 from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and the downstream product prices were stable. The photovoltaic installation in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is expected to complete the main - contract switch this week. For the 11 - contract, the downstream can accept the price at CNY 48,000, which forms a support. The 12 - contract and later contracts can be considered for light - position long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [4]. Agricultural Products Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [5]. - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affected corn quality, and the approaching harvest in the Northeast and expected increase in production and cost reduction pressured prices [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the pressure of new crop listings [5]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at CNY 5408/ton, down 0.15% [5]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season exceeded the previous year, and the high sugar - to - ethanol ratio will maintain high production. The supply is expected to increase, and the international sugar price is under pressure [6]. - Trading strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices fell, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: Indian cotton imports increased, and the sowing progress in Brazil was slightly lower. In China, cotton commercial inventory increased, and the acquisition price in Xinjiang rose [6]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with a strategy focused on the range of CNY 13,400 - 13,800/ton [6]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, while spot prices rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Low egg prices increased downstream buying, but sufficient supply and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to be weak due to sufficient supply [6]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices continued to rise [6]. - Fundamentals: Pig slaughter increased, and the secondary fattening entered the market. The decline space of pig prices is limited, and it is expected to bottom out weakly [6]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to secondary fattening [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and market transactions were average [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production and some domestic device load - reduction slowed the increase in supply. The downstream was in the peak season, and demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern will be loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage [7][8]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4720, up 0.4% [8]. - Fundamentals: PVC prices were stable, exports increased, supply increased, and inventory was at a high level [8]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short [8]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was $798/ton, and PTA East China spot price was CNY 4370/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, and PTA production was affected by short - term maintenance. Polyester factory load increased, and inventory was at a medium - high level [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA's processing margin [8]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated narrowly and closed at CNY 15,150/ton, up 1% [8]. - Fundamentals: Thai raw material prices rose, and Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased [8]. - Trading strategy: The market will oscillate due to raw material support and inventory reduction [8]. Glass - Market performance: The fg01 contract closed at 1092, up 0.2% [8]. - Fundamentals: Glass prices fell, production and sales were average, supply was high, and inventory accumulated [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the negative feedback in the short term [8]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and market transactions were average [9]. - Fundamentals: New device production and some device load - reduction increased supply. The downstream was in the peak season, but previous subsidies overdrew some demand [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage as the supply - demand pattern loosens [9]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was CNY 4107/ton, and the basis was 81 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to maintenance and delayed shipments. Polyester factory load increased, and inventory was at a medium - high level [9]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short term due to market oscillation and low inventory. Short on rallies in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded sharply due to geopolitical rumors and positive EIA reports [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased with production increases from multiple countries, and demand may weaken seasonally in Q4 [9]. - Trading strategy: Close previous short positions and short on rallies after the rebound [9]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was weak, and market transactions were average [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal or above - normal levels, and downstream demand was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate weakly, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage as the supply - demand pattern loosens [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1225, up 0.4% [9][10]. - Fundamentals: Soda ash prices oscillated at the bottom, supply was high in the fourth quarter, and inventory increased slightly [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see due to balanced supply - demand and upstream losses [10].
商品期货早班车-20251023
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:41