国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Trend: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Trend: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - Fundamental Data: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trend: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - Fundamental Data: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Trend: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - Market Trend: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - Fundamental Data: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].