金融期货早班车-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the bond market, it is short - term bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; in the medium to long - term, due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 22, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.61 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.79% to 3059.32 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.06% to 1405.41 points. Market trading volume was 1690.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.58%), banks (+0.97%), and household appliances (+0.82%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-1.36%), power equipment (-1.29%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.19%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2278/194/2963 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 14.2 billion, - 17.3 billion, 8.9 billion, and 22.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 30 billion, - 11.3 billion, +24.9 billion, and +16.4 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 149.01, 116.88, 29.17, and 4.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.85%, - 9.53%, - 3.69%, and - 0.87% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 29%, 20%, 25%, and 37% respectively [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 22, the bond market was relatively strong. Among the active contracts, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.1% [2]. - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.027, and an IRR of 1.61%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a flat yield, a corresponding net basis of - 0.058, and an IRR of 1.82%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.4bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.045, and an IRR of 1.73%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.29% [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 138.2 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 43.5 billion yuan, and the net injection was 94.7 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [9].