宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年10月23日）-20251023

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][6][7]. - The market for these commodities is affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, and inventories [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: Market focus is on Sino - US negotiations. The domestic market is hesitant to buy forward - delivery soybeans due to uncertain import costs. The current soybean meal market has a pattern of both weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the combined effect of loose supply and weak demand. Short - term futures prices will continue to oscillate [5]. - Influencing Factors: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: Tightening supply in Indonesia and improved export data in the first half of October support the price of Malaysian palm oil. The expected slowdown in Indian purchases and high domestic inventories in Malaysia suppress market sentiment. In China, position adjustments by funds and weekly increases in palm oil inventories also put pressure on prices. The short - term market oscillation intensifies, and futures prices are mainly oscillating weakly [7]. - Influencing Factors: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - Influencing Factors: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].