碳酸锂日评：上方空间有限-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On October 21, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market was mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and the discount widened. With both supply and demand strong currently, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, the downstream destocking is slowing down, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Price Data - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On October 21, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75800 yuan/ton, 75580 yuan/ton, 75980 yuan/ton, and 75980 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 197,979 lots (+28,871), and the open interest of the active contract was 310,199 lots (+171,765). The inventory was 29,892 tons (-813) [1]. - Lithium Ore and Related Products: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 854 US dollars/ton (+3), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1115 yuan/ton (+15), and lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1845 yuan/ton (+20). The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton, and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 7520 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium Chemical Products: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,100 yuan/ton (+100), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 71,850 yuan/ton (+100). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.45 US dollars/kg (unchanged) [1]. - Other Products: The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95%/domestic) was 82,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 102,650 yuan/ton (+100) [1]. 2. Market Information - Sigma Lithium canceled its plan to start producing lithium carbonate in Brazil and instead focused on tripling its lithium ore production by 2030. As prices decline, market participants are shifting to mid - stream processing to ensure stable production of raw materials and precursors, which are the main cost - driving factors for electric vehicle batteries [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and lithium ore prices such as spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in October [1]. 4. Inventory Situation - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons (-2,143), with smelters and downstream sectors destocking [1]. 5. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to sell short at the upper edge of the short - term trading range [1].