国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251023

Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Gold: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has eased [2][4] - Silver: Spot contradictions have eased, with prices rising and then falling [2][5] - Copper: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][9] - Zinc: Ranging within a certain interval [2][12] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - Aluminum: The trend is oscillating and slightly bullish; Alumina is grinding at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Nickel: In the short - term, there is a narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2][23] - Stainless Steel: It is difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limit the downside space [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing prices of domestic and international gold - related contracts generally declined. For example, the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 4.17%, and the decline of Comex Gold 2512 was 0.53%. ETF holdings decreased, and inventory increased slightly. There were multiple macro - news such as Trump canceling the meeting with Putin and the Fed's plan to relax bank capital requirements [5] - Silver: The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 3.42%, and the night - session showed a slight increase. Inventory decreased significantly. Spot contradictions eased, and prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [5] Copper - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased slightly by 0.02%. Trading volume and open interest changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,125 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons [9] - Spot: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 400 yuan/ton. There were various macro and industrial news, such as the strong earnings season on Wall Street and Peru's decline in copper production [9][11] Zinc - Market Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.14%. Inventory decreased, and the LME zinc cash - 3M premium increased significantly. There were news such as the bankruptcy of PrimaLend in the secondary lending market [12][13] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased slightly by 0.09%. Inventory decreased significantly, with Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreasing by 3156 tons and LME lead inventory decreasing by 3175 tons. There were news about the strong earnings season on Wall Street and the US government shutdown [16] Tin - Price and Inventory: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.29%. The price of SMM 1 tin ingot increased by 7,000 yuan/ton. Inventory increased slightly, and there were multiple macro - news [18][19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4887.86 yuan/ton, showing an increase. There were news such as the US government shutdown and the India - US trade agreement [21][22] - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased slightly. It was in a state of grinding at the bottom [21] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the ADC12 theoretical profit increased [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly. There were events such as the Indonesian government taking over a nickel mine area and China suspending a non - official subsidy for Russian nickel imports [23][24] - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly. It was difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limited the downside space [23]