短期供给压力不大，糖价下方或存在一定的支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, the production in the central - southern region of Brazil enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, significantly reducing the global supply pressure. After the sharp decline of raw sugar, its valuation is moderately low, and the production cost in Brazil is around 15 - 16 cents. Although India and Thailand have strong production - increase expectations, their large - scale crushing will start around December, and the previous sharp decline of raw sugar has more or less reflected this expectation. The raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production costs of these two countries. [23] - Domestically, the expected production will increase slightly, large - scale crushing will start around mid - December, and the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline month - on - month. Overall, the supply pressure is not large. After the futures price drops to a relatively low level, it is significantly lower than the production cost, with strong support below, and the futures may have a phased rebound. [25] Section Summaries Brazil Enters Seasonal Production - Reduction Cycle - Brazil is one of the world's largest sugar producers and the largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season sugar production in Brazil, with the focus on the impact of weather, sugar mill production strategies, and ethanol substitution effects. [2] - Starting from October, Brazil's sugar production enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, greatly reducing the global supply pressure. The latest bi - weekly production data released by UNICA is slightly higher than market expectations. In the second half of September, 4085.5 tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; sugar production was 313.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The cumulative sugar production was 3352.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. [4][5] India and Thailand Expected to Increase Production but Not Yet Started Crushing - India: India's sugar production increase expectation is strong. In the 2024/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 2590 tons, far lower than expected. ISMA expects the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to be 3490 tons. Considering the 400 - ton ethanol diversion, the actual sugar production will be around 3100 tons, an increase of about 500 tons compared to the previous year. Large - scale crushing will start around late December, and the production cost is around 18 - 19 cents per pound. [7][8] - Thailand: Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the second - largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 1014 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%, ending the two - year consecutive decline. Different institutions predict that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 5% - 14%. [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - New - year domestic sugar production: In the 2024/25 sugar - making period, domestic sugar production was 1116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120 tons. Different institutions predict that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be between 1120 and 1160 tons. Currently, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the north have started production, with the estimated production at 70 - 75 tons. Large - scale crushing in the south will start in December, and the short - term domestic supply pressure is not large. [14] - Fourth - quarter sugar imports decline month - on - month: China's imported sugar is divided into in - quota and out - of - quota. In September 2025, China imported 55 tons of sugar, about 28 tons less than in August, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 316 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. Under the principle of annual total control and considering the decline in shipments from Brazil in September, the arrival volume of domestic sugar in the fourth quarter will decline month - on - month, which is conducive to reducing domestic supply pressure. [16] - Syrup imports are controlled and the import volume drops significantly: Since December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam has also been suspended. In September 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premixed powder was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. [22]