Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to index rotation. For treasury bond futures, an upward - trending and volatile view is held, with focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The overall economic situation shows a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and it is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [10][12]. - In the black sector, steel and ore are expected to maintain a volatile market in the medium - term. Iron ore short positions should be reduced on dips. The coal - coke price may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply of coal is expected to shrink in the future. The silicon - iron is stronger than manganese - silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost support [14][16][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The alumina price is expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies when the futures price is at a premium is suggested. The zinc price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held. The lithium carbonate price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the industrial silicon and polysilicon will run within a narrow range [23][24][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, for cotton, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand. For sugar, the domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling or waiting and seeing is advised. For eggs, short - selling near - month contracts on rallies is recommended. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, short - selling the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended. For red dates, a wait - and - see approach is suggested. For live pigs, short - selling the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, for crude oil, there may be a short - term rebound, but the medium - and long - term trading is based on fundamentals. The fuel oil price will follow the oil price. The polyolefin price will fluctuate weakly. The rubber price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. The methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and a small amount of long - positions can be considered after the emergence of a rebound driver. The caustic soda price will fluctuate. For the polyester industry chain, short - term long - positions can be tried lightly, but the overall rebound space is limited. The LPG supply is abundant, and a bearish view is held in the long - term [41][42][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The US President Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting may be cancelled. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no information to provide on this specific issue [6]. - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for public comments on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Many fund managers have submitted a batch of indices as performance comparison benchmarks [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group is 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - Regional small and medium - sized banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate cuts, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [6]. - Nanjing has introduced a housing provident fund support policy for multi - child families, with the maximum loan amount increased by 20% [7]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion [7]. - The EU has approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [8]. - The Japanese Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, with a scale possibly exceeding 13.9 trillion yen [8]. - India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, which may reduce the tariff on Indian goods exported to the US from about 50% to 15% - 16% [8]. - Japan's exports in September increased by 4.2% year - on - year, driven by semiconductor exports [8]. - The main contracts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose by 3.74% and 4.94% respectively [8]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a volatile and contracting volume trend. The real estate, deep - earth economy, and banking sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3913.76 points, and the full - day trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan [10]. - The Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, which was in line with expectations. Industrial production exceeded expectations, but the demand side was more differentiated, with exports better than before and social retail and fixed - asset investment further weakening [10]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The bond market was slightly strengthened by the Bloomberg's easing expectations in the afternoon [12]. - The economic situation is similar to that of stock index futures, and it is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12]. Black Steel and Ore - From a macro perspective, the statement of the important meeting is expected to be neutral. The real demand for steel downstream has limited improvement, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak in the peak season and may be better in the off - season [14]. - The real estate sales data is weak, and infrastructure projects have capital pressure. The demand for rolled plates is okay, but the high inventory of galvanized and cold - rolled products affects the steel valuation [14]. - Iron ore short positions should be reduced on dips, and steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term [14]. Coal - Coke - The coal - coke price may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The supply of coal is expected to shrink in the future due to policies such as "anti - involution" and safety inspections [16]. - The current high iron - water production and active procurement by downstream enterprises support the coal - coke price, but the poor steel mill profits and weak peak - season demand limit the upward space [16]. Ferroalloys - The silicon - iron is stronger than manganese - silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost support. The reasonable valuation range of the price difference between the two is [-400, - 250] [17]. - There is no clear trading strategy for single - side trading at present [17]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and strong demand fundamentals. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [23]. - The alumina price is expected to continue to decline due to high production and inventory levels. Short - selling on rallies when the futures price is at a premium is suggested [23]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held [24]. - The trading volume of zinc in the domestic spot market is light, and the downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm is not high [24]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term supply disturbances and strong demand support the price, but the long - term supply - demand situation may weaken, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range [26]. - The polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the lower limit affected by policy expectations [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [30]. - The domestic cotton price has rebounded, but the supply pressure remains. The downstream demand is still weak, and there are uncertainties in external demand [30][31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish. The import profit and low - price impact drag down the sugar price, but the cost provides some support [32]. - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 740 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and India's early crushing adds bearish pressure [32]. Eggs - The egg supply is loose, and the short - term spot price may be stable and weak. It is recommended to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [34]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the capacity reduction is slow. The egg price may have limited further decline space, but the supply pressure remains [34]. Apples - The apple price is expected to fluctuate. The price in the western region is firm, and the market is affected by factors such as the listing volume and acquisition sentiment [36]. Corn - A short - selling strategy on the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended [36]. - The corn price has rebounded in the short - term, but the supply pressure in the Northeast is accumulating, and the possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact [36]. Red Dates - A wait - and - see approach is suggested. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to decline [37][38]. Live Pigs - The spot price may have a short - term rebound, but the supply pressure continues. Short - selling the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended [38][39]. - The current pig supply is sufficient, but the low price has led to increased reluctance to sell and second - fattening, which provides some support to the price [39]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors drive the oil price to rebound. The supply is increasing steadily, and the demand is expected to weaken [41]. - The oil price may have a short - term rebound, but the medium - and long - term trading is based on fundamentals [41]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak [42]. - Geopolitical and macro factors jointly affect the oil price, and the impact of sanctions on Russian fuel oil supply needs to be considered [42]. Plastics - The polyolefin supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term rebounds may occur, and previous short positions can be reduced [44]. - The upstream production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [44]. Rubber - The rubber price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Attention can be paid to double - selling strategies or short - term long - positions on pullbacks [45]. - Overseas raw material prices are rising, and the EU's new standards may affect future downstream procurement and domestic arrivals [45]. Methanol - The methanol price fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods. It is recommended to wait for a rebound driver and then consider a small amount of long - positions [46]. - The supply pressure is large, and the impact of imported goods arrival needs further observation [46]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate. The weak alumina price suppresses the caustic soda futures [47]. - The spot price is weak, and the high - concentration alkali inventory in Shandong is increasing [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain prices are strong due to cost increases and improved sentiment. Short - term long - positions can be tried lightly, but the rebound space is limited [48]. - The PX supply may shrink, the PTA price is driven by cost and downstream replenishment, and the ethylene glycol price rebounds due to device news and cost increases [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG supply is abundant. The demand from the blending oil market may weaken, but the PDH profit has improved [50]. - A bearish view is held in the long - term, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price rebounds [50].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251023
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:48