甲醇日评：原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹-20251023

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the amplitude is likely to be limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The methanol price is relatively high in terms of valuation, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and subsequent driving forces may come from possible supply reductions such as Iran's gas - restriction expectations. Overall, it is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.31%) to 2261 yuan/ton; MA05 increased by 12 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2300 yuan/ton; MA09 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.31%) to 2259 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Prices in different regions had various changes, with the largest decrease in Shandong (-17.50 yuan/ton, -0.77%) and the largest increase in Inner Mongolia (15 yuan/ton, 0.75%) [1] - Coal and natural gas prices: Coal prices in some regions increased slightly, while industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.51%) to 244.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at -472.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 69 yuan/ton (65.09%) to -37 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 133 yuan/ton (14.22%) to -802.07 yuan/ton [1] - Other product profits: Acetic acid profit increased by 197.69 yuan/ton (38.15%) to 715.85 yuan/ton, while MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic market: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed weak upward momentum, opening at 2276 yuan/ton, closing at 2261 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 579,308 lots and open interest of 1,097,780, showing reduced volume and increased open interest [1] - Foreign market: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are currently shut down, and attention should be paid to the later natural gas supply and recent tendering situations in the Middle East [1]