尿素早评：低估值等待驱动-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - Urea is currently undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. The current strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has stabilized after falling to a near - five - year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream purchases are cautious. Future possible driving forces include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On October 22, UR01 closed at 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1691 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.54%; UR09 closed at 1725 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35%. Domestic spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for Jiangsu, where it decreased by 10 yuan or 0.65% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 9 yuan to - 151 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream prices such as compound fertilizers (45%S), melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1621 yuan/ton, with a high of 1625 yuan/ton, a low of 1610 yuan/ton, a close of 1621 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1617 yuan/ton, and a position of 312,046 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options [1]