中辉期货豆粕日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term bearish consolidation: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish consolidation or downward pressure. For example, soymeal is expected to have short - term bearish consolidation due to potential Argentine bean meal re - entry and Trump's remarks, and the current Sino - US trade tariffs provide some support at around 2800 [1][4]. - Rebound and short - selling: For live pigs, the short - term market is seen as a rebound, but it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds due to increasing supply pressure in Q4 and weakening demand after the festival [1][17]. - High - level shock: Palm oil is in a high - level shock state with a short - term adjustment trend due to the slowdown in the month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days [1][8]. - Range - bound shock: ICE cotton market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, and the domestic cotton market has short - term upward pressure [1][12]. - Sell on rallies: For jujubes, based on the current production forecast and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruit is on the market. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Price and profit: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2885 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 167.3596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.02 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week. The 125 oil - mill soybean inventory is 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week, and the bean meal inventory is 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week [3]. - Market situation: The spot market has sufficient supply, but the oil - mill profit is in a loss state, leading to an increase in the willingness to support prices. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price and profit: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2307 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 351.1355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.52 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - Inventory: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week [6]. - Market situation: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a de - stocking state, but the demand enters the seasonal off - season. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new driving factors [6]. Palm Oil - Price and inventory: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 9164 yuan/ton, down 1.40% from the previous day. As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from the previous week [7][8]. - Market situation: The month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days has slowed down, which is bearish for the market sentiment. Considering the unchanged biodiesel policy, it is a short - term adjustment trend [1][8]. Cotton - Price and inventory: The latest price of the main contract CF2601 is 13535 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The national cotton commercial inventory has increased to 143.34 million tons, 20 million tons lower than the same period [9]. - Market situation: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over half - way. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection is over 70%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally weak. The main contract price is approaching the intensive hedging pressure level, and there is a risk of re - pricing decline [1][12]. Jujubes - Price and inventory: The latest price of the main contract CJ2601 is 11265 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from the previous week [13][14]. - Market situation: The new jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and there is a risk of short - term speculation. The demand is gradually improving, but there is no obvious inflection point. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. Live Pigs - Price and inventory: The latest price of the main contract 1h2601 is 12220 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The national sample - enterprise pig inventory is 3839.01 million tons, an increase of 56.61 million tons from the previous month [16]. - Market situation: In the short term, the October planned slaughter volume of enterprises has increased. The increase in the standard - fat price difference has stimulated some secondary fattening. The supply pressure in Q4 is still high, and the demand has declined after the festival. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [1][17].