中辉有色观点-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level correction, long-term strategic allocation value remains, short-term wait and see [2] - Silver: High-level adjustment, long-term bullish, short-term exit and wait and see, long-term wait for stabilization to go long [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation, long-term bullish, copper long positions to be held with caution [2] - Zinc: Rebound, long-term supply increase and demand decrease, rebound to sell high [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Relatively strong, short-term rise and then fall [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range operation, short-term weak operation, wait and see [2] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, wait for callback to buy [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non-ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, supply and demand, and geopolitics. In the short term, the prices of some varieties may fluctuate due to market sentiment and short-term events, while in the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals and macro environment will play a decisive role [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Technical selling continues to suppress the gold price, and the center of gravity of gold continues to decline [3] - Basic Logic: The US government shutdown, the US debt scale exceeding 38 trillion US dollars, the twists and turns of the Trump-Putin meeting. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for the gold price to stop falling in the short term, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of 920 for domestic gold. For silver, pay attention to the sentiment rhythm and the effectiveness of the support at 11,000. Long-term positions can continue to be held [5] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper stabilizes at a high level and fluctuates narrowly [7] - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper concentrate imports increase, and the electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. The downstream is cautious due to high prices, and the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold copper long positions with caution, use trailing stop-loss to protect profits. New long positions wait for the callback to stabilize. For enterprises, producers can sell hedging at high prices, and processors wait for the opportunity to buy hedging. In the long term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - Market Review: Zinc fluctuates and rebounds, standing firm at the 22,000 mark [10] - Industrial Logic: The domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, the zinc smelter starts actively, the demand is under pressure, and the overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft squeeze risk [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Short-term zinc short positions can gradually take profits, and wait for the rebound to go short again. In the long term, zinc is a short allocation [11] Aluminum - Market Review: The aluminum price continues to rise, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] - Industrial Logic: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, the inventory decreases, and the demand is relatively stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, pay attention to the start of downstream processing enterprises, and the main operating range is [20,800 - 21,500] [15] Nickel - Market Review: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [17] - Industrial Logic: The overseas nickel ore supply disturbance weakens, the domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and the stainless steel inventory increases. The terminal consumption in the peak season needs further observation [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opens high and goes high, increasing positions and rising more than 1% [21] - Industrial Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand is strong, the supply is at a high level, and the terminal demand is booming [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with the range of [76,800 - 78,500] [23]