期货眼日迹：每日早盘观察-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Status: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - Strategy: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - Market Status: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - Strategy: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market Status: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - Strategy: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Status: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - Strategy: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - Market Status: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - Strategy: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - Market Status: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - Strategy: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - Market Status: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - Strategy: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - Market Status: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - Strategy: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Status: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - Strategy: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - Market Status: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - Strategy: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Status: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - Strategy: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - Market Status: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - Strategy: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - Market Status: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - Strategy: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market Status: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - Strategy: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - Market Status: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - Strategy: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - Market Status: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - Strategy: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Status: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - Strategy: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Status: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - Strategy: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - Market Status: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - Strategy: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - Market Status: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - Strategy: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - Market Status: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - Strategy: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - Market Status: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - Strategy: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - Market Status: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - Strategy: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - Market Status: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - Strategy: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Status: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - Strategy: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - Market Status: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - Strategy: Not provided in the text.