国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Many products are in a state of short - term shock, with some showing upward or downward trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - events [10][18][53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Follows the oil price rebound. In the short - term, it's a shock market. When PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge. There may be a reduction in load later. Supply - demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support [10]. - PTA: The demand is expected to improve marginally. It's a unilateral shock market, and short positions are recommended to be reduced. New devices are planned to start this week, and the basis has fallen [10]. - MEG: The demand expectation has improved, and there is a short - term rebound. Short positions are recommended to be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [9][10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The import volume of natural rubber in September increased, and the main rubber types and source countries showed a significant increase [11][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, while the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low [16][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt has risen rapidly due to geopolitical stimulation. The trend strength is relatively strong. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][29]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates slightly, and the market is in a negative feedback stage. Supply pressure will increase, and inventory pressure is high [30][31]. 3.6 PP - PP still shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates in a narrow range. Trade wars, high supply, and falling oil prices suppress the market price [34][35]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The trend strength is neutral. The supply pressure is not significant in October, but the valuation is always restricted by the expected reduction of alumina production [38][39]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The futures market is strong, while the spot market is stagnant. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price of white cardboard may rise [42][44][45]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is neutral. The market price is slightly weak, and the trading is light. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [46][47]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is neutral. The port inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low, and it is affected by macro - events [50][53][54]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is large, the valuation is high, and the domestic demand is weak [55][57][58]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene continues to have a negative feedback in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The short - term is in an oscillating state. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to reduction, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [59][60]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [63][64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - For LPG, the market valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist. For propylene, it is supported by cost and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term. The trend strength of both is neutral [67][70]. 3.15 PVC - PVC shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price is stable, and the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is affected by trade wars, with low - level procurement mentality being weak and cost declining [74]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, with increased market fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is relatively resistant to decline. The shipping prices of European and US - West routes have increased to varying degrees, and the market shows certain resilience [79].