铝：震荡偏强，氧化铝：底部磨盘，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Bottom consolidation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in both the futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability [1] - The U.S. government shutdown may cause a temporary increase in the unemployment rate, and India and the U.S. are close to reaching a trade agreement with a significant reduction in tariffs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract was 21,045 yuan, up 80 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,806 dollars, up 25 dollars compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME注销仓单占比 was 15.93%, down 0.28% compared to T - 1 [1] - Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main - contract was 2,829 yuan, up 19 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main - contract was 268,015, up 34,165 compared to T - 1 [1] - Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main - contract was 20,515 yuan, up 105 yuan compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main - contract was 3,313, up 92 compared to T - 1 [1] Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 4,887.86 yuan, up 21.55 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2,935 yuan, down 5 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The alumina Lianyungang CIF price in dollars/ton was 341, down 2 dollars compared to T - 1 [1] - Aluminum Bauxite - The price of Guinea - imported bauxite (Al:43 - 45%, Si:2 - 3%) was 73 dollars/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] Other Information - The U.S. government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, and the unemployment rate may rise temporarily. After the government re - opens, the unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.3%. Morgan Stanley estimates that 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, which may "technically" push up the unemployment rate by 44 basis points [2] - India and the U.S. are close to reaching a trade agreement. India may agree to gradually reduce oil imports from Russia in exchange for U.S. tariff concessions. The goal is to increase bilateral trade to 50 billion dollars by 2030, and the first - phase results of the agreement are expected to be finalized between October and November [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]