铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The uncertainty of the start - up of secondary lead due to raw material issues provides some support for lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to remain range - bound. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure. Additionally, attention should be paid to the increasing LME 0 - 3 back structure as LME zinc inventories are continuously depleted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day at 17,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract also remained unchanged at 17,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 33.36% to 29,011 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20.89% to 26,547 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 244,125 tons, and the SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 11.22% to 24,977 tons [1] - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, which has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate. For secondary lead, previously shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, with an increase in demand [1] - Company News: Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate production to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and lead concentrate production to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% [1] - Investment Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and continue to monitor the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and changes in macro - sentiment [1] Zinc Market - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 21,830 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 22,000 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.76% to 102,274 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.72% to 132,692 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 35,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 1.60% to 65,209 tons [1] - Fundamentals: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are continuously rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,400 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the monthly production is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open as the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate [1] - Company News: MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's Odda smelter's refined zinc production decreased compared to the previous quarter, affected by a shortage of intermediate materials, and SMM expects its 2025 actual output to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons [1] - Investment Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]