镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱，不锈钢偏弱震荡-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Price and Volume: On October 22, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 73,851 lots (+13,460), and the open interest was 121,311 lots (+70,923). LME nickel fell 0.23%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Supply: Nickel ore prices rose. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits decreased [1]. - Demand: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - Price and Volume: On October 22, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 99,210 lots (-26,868), and the open interest was 179,530 lots (-8,802). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 621,700 tons (+2,300) [1]. - Supply: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but 300 - series production decreased [1]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Industry Data - Nickel Consumption Structure: In 2024, global primary nickel consumption reached 3.35 million tons. The stainless - steel sector accounted for 66%, ranking first. The power - battery sector accounted for 16%, ranking second, and was the fastest - growing sector in the past decade, becoming the core driver of nickel - demand growth. From 2022 - 2024, the compound annual growth rate of nickel consumption was stable at 6%. The proportions of each sector remained balanced. The entire market structure did not show significant fluctuations. In the first half of this year, global nickel consumption continued its positive trend. From January to July, primary nickel consumption reached 2.024 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [1]. - Inventory Data: China's port nickel - ore total inventory was 10.5 million wet tons; SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained unchanged; SMM pure - nickel social inventory showed changes; the total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 10,100 tons, with different trends in 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless - steel inventories [1].