化工日报：煤制EG利润压缩，关注涉美船务费问题-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). Driven by the news of several device operations and possible supply cuts in Saudi Arabia, the EG price rose, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian devices are still shut down or operating at low loads, with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is rising, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply. The price has fallen to near the April low. Attention should be paid to the shipping fee issue related to vessels involved in US - related problems [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [1][2]