油脂日报：油脂震荡为主，静待驱动指引-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Currently, the supply and demand of oils remain stable with weak driving forces. However, the macro - environment has changed significantly recently, so the impact of macro - factors on the market needs to be closely monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,164.00 yuan/ton yesterday, with a环比 change of - 130 yuan (-1.40%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,238.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 56.00 yuan (-0.68%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,834.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 30.00 yuan (-0.30%) [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,140.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 150.00 yuan (-1.61%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 24.00, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,450.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan/ton (-0.82%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, with a环比 change of - 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,140.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 30.00 yuan (-0.29%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 306.00, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Brazil: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 178.5 million tons (compared to 171.8 million tons in the previous season). Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach 111 million tons (higher than 109.5 million tons in 2025). The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season will reach 60.5 million tons (higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous season). The soybean meal production in the 2025/26 season will be 46.6 million tons (compared to 45.1 million tons in the previous season). Brazil's soybean meal exports in 2026 will be 24.6 million tons (compared to 23.6 million tons in 2025). Brazil's soybean oil production in 2026 will be 12.1 million tons (compared to 11.7 million tons in 2025). Brazil's soybean oil imports in 2026 will be 125,000 tons, a 25% increase from the previous year [2] - Malaysia: According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77%, with a 4.54% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 21.99% increase in Sabah, a 16.69% increase in Sarawak, and a 20.45% increase in Borneo [2]