尿素日报：厂内库存累库速度放缓-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices are mainly stable, with a slight increase in the futures market and improved spot trading, but downstream procurement remains cautious [2] - In the medium - to long - term, urea supply and demand are still relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity [2] - With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand for urea increases. Northeast compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production in late October, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are export windows. In September, 1.37 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Figures cover urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [25][26][27][28] 4. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit [30][35][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days [54][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures consist of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][60] Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,621 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,540 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 81 yuan/ton (-22). Urea production profit was 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 992 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Supply Side: As of October 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6302 million tons (+14,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] - Demand Side: As of October 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18% (-1.32%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.41 days (+0.70) [1]