燃料油日报：盘面跟随原油端反弹，自身市场驱动暂有限-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market rebounded following the crude oil market, but its own market drivers are currently limited. The market is in a window period with important macro events undecided, so it's necessary to be cautious about news disturbances. The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil are okay with some market structure support, but the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a decline in fuel oil consumption from power generation terminals, which is negative for the market. The low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery is expected to marginally ease local supply pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.13% at 2,691 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.32% at 3,135 yuan/ton. After continuous declines, market sentiment recovered, and the significant rebound in crude oil prices drove up the FU and LU prices. However, the market is in a window period with important macro events undecided, and news disturbances need attention. The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil are okay with some market structure support, but the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a decline in fuel oil consumption from power generation terminals, which is negative for the market. Recently, the contango structure in the overseas market has shown signs of weakening, indicating resistance above the market. The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the market structure is operating weakly. But with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. Overall, apart from the influence of the crude oil market, the fuel oil market lacks its own drivers [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]