氯碱日报：烧碱山东库存持平，江苏累库-20251023

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC prices may rebound with macro - sentiment after a decline. The supply is abundant due to new capacity and recovering from maintenance, and demand has improved. Export is strong but there are potential risks from anti - dumping investigations. Attention should be paid to policies and political meetings. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. Supply is expected to rise slightly, while demand sentiment is mixed due to alumina plant production cuts. Inventory varies by region, and new alumina plant demand needs attention. [3] Group 3: Summary by Category PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4719 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in East China is - 89 yuan/ton (-20), and in South China is - 19 yuan/ton (-20). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China at 4700 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 690 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and PVC export profit is - 0.8 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - Inventory and开工: Factory inventory is 36.0 tons (-2.3), social inventory is 55.6 tons (-0.1), calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and overall PVC开工 rate is 75.14% (-5.66%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 55.6 tons (-2.8). [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed, and new capacity is ramping up. The supply is abundant. [3] - Demand: Downstream开工 has recovered, and point - price transactions have improved. Exports are strong, but PVC product exports may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. [3] - Inventory: Social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value is still high. [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, but may be affected by policies. [3] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2380 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 183 yuan/ton (-5). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and 50% is 1280 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 988.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) in Shandong is 216.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and in the Northwest is 1191.25 yuan/ton (-50.51). [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 tons (-1.79), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.34), and the开工 rate is 81.40% (-2.90%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 88.61% (-1.02%). [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New capacity has been put into full production, and more maintenance enterprises have resumed, so supply is expected to increase slightly. [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but there are expectations of production cuts in Henan. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs. [3] - Inventory: Shandong's inventory is stable, while Jiangsu's inventory has increased. [3] - Price: The price is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. [3] Strategies - PVC: Unilateral - wait and see; Inter - delivery spread - sell V01 and buy V05 when the spread is high; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - wide - range oscillation; Inter - delivery spread - wait and see; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [5]