黑色建材日报：库存环比下降，钢价有所回升-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis and a slight increase in steel prices. However, the inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market remains prominent. The short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The iron ore market has seen a small rebound. With the successful first shipment from Simandou, the overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices, and the subsequent demand is expected to weaken as steel mill profit shrinks and production cut expectations increase [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows that the futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, and the elimination of backward coking capacity is accelerating. The overall supply of coking coal is slightly shrinking, and the demand for coke is showing a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a significant increase in coal prices due to strong downstream demand. Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large, and the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main steel futures contract rose on a month - on - month basis. The production of building materials and hot - rolled coils in the country declined this week, inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the apparent demand rebounded on a month - on - month basis. The overall spot steel trading was average, with prices basically stable or slightly rising, and a strong willingness to sell at low prices [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years. The industrial side needs to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to relieve the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure. The high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market is still prominent. Short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and the steel inventory pressure cannot be ignored [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price rebounded slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 1.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.56%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 0.866 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.9%. The first shipment from Simandou was successful recently, and it is expected to achieve the target smoothly in the future [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The current overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices. As steel mill profit shrinks, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and the subsequent iron ore demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project's shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures prices oscillated strongly. In the imported coal market, traders were cautious, and quotes fluctuated with the market, with a general trading atmosphere. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, affecting the local supply decline. Wuhai and Ordos are accelerating the elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, involving a total production capacity of more than 10 million tons [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: For coking coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, and environmental protection restrictions have affected domestic production, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply. The downstream blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output have declined slightly, and enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand with weak restocking willingness. For coke, some coking enterprises are at the break - even point due to rising coal prices, and the production enthusiasm is limited. Coupled with the elimination of backward production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the coke supply is restricted. Steel mills have large inventory pressure, and the molten iron output is declining, so the actual demand for coke shows a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillate [7]. - Coke: Oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, recent safety inspections are strict, the number of coal mines with production suspension and reduction has increased, the overall supply has tightened, the upstream quotes are firm, and the downstream terminal demand is continuously released, so the pit - mouth coal price continues to rise. At ports, the coal price is running strongly. The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway is still in the maintenance stage, the shipping volume increase is limited, and the port inventory accumulation speed is relatively slow. In the import market, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, downstream tenders are gradually increasing, and the import bid price has increased slightly [7]. - Supply - demand and logic: Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large. The downstream winter storage demand is good, and the non - power coal demand is strong, so the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7].