Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP [1] - Bearish consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][5] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] Core Views - The core driver of the oil price is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down. However, short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the oil price to rebound [7]. - The prices of LPG, L, PP, PVC, and other products are mainly affected by cost support and supply - demand relationships. Most of them are in a state of supply surplus, and the prices are under pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [1]. - PX and PTA have the expectation of supply - demand improvement, but the cost side is affected by the oil price, and the prices are expected to be volatile [1][29][32]. - Ethylene glycol has limited upward driving force due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, and is expected to be weak in the short term [35]. - Methanol and urea have weak fundamentals with high supply pressure and limited demand, but there may be some opportunities in the long - term [2][38]. - Natural gas demand is expected to pick up with the temperature drop, and the price may rise [5]. - Asphalt supply - demand is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price fluctuations [5]. - Glass and soda ash are in a state of supply - demand surplus, and the prices are expected to be weak [5]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising 0.39%, Brent rising 0.51%, and SC falling 0.66% [6]. - Basic logic: Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in oil prices, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [7]. - Strategy: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [9]. LPG - Market performance: On October 22, the PG main contract closed at 4130 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [12]. - Basic logic: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The cost end rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side support declines [13]. - Strategy: Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [14]. L - Market performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6874 yuan/ton (- 55) [17]. - Basic logic: Cost support improves, and there is a weak rebound. Supply continues to be loose, and the demand side has insufficient restocking power [18]. - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, short positions leave the market, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - Market performance: The PP2601 closed at 6583 yuan/ton (+ 18) [22]. - Basic logic: Short - term cost support improves, following the weak rebound of the chemical sector. Supply - demand is weak, and there is high inventory - removal pressure in the future [23]. - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, reduce short positions, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [23]. PVC - Market performance: The V2601 closed at 4719 yuan/ton (+ 20) [26]. - Basic logic: Cost support improves, following the chemical sector rebound. Domestic demand is weak, and the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply is loose [27]. - Strategy: The supply - demand weakness is difficult to change. The absolute price is undervalued. Participate in the short - term rebound with a light position. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - Market performance: The prices of PX futures contracts declined [28]. - Basic logic: Supply - side devices have slightly reduced loads, and demand is expected to improve. PXN is not low this year, and the PX - MX spread is narrowing. The cost - end crude oil price rebounds in the short term [29]. - Strategy: The valuation is not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of PX [6410 - 6490] [30]. PTA - Market performance: The prices of PTA futures contracts declined [31]. - Basic logic: Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and new devices are about to be put into production. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure from October to November [32]. - Strategy: The valuation and processing fees are not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of TA [4450 - 4520] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The prices of ethylene glycol futures contracts declined [34]. - Basic logic: Domestic devices increase loads, and overseas devices slightly reduce loads. The arrival and import volume are still low compared to the same period. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates slightly [35]. - Strategy: Partially stop losses on short positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices during the rebound. Pay attention to the range of EG [4020 - 4100] [36]. Methanol - Market performance: The prices of methanol futures contracts declined [37]. - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious positive factors. The cost support is weakly stable [38]. - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [38]. Urea - Market performance: Shandong small - particle urea is weakly stable, and the basis slightly weakens [2]. - Basic logic: Supply is expected to increase after the return of maintenance devices, and demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating [2]. - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. For the long - term, try to go long with a light position [2]. Natural Gas - Market performance: Not mentioned - Basic logic: Temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the gas price rebounds. The supply is sufficient [5]. - Strategy: Not mentioned Asphalt - Market performance: Not mentioned - Basic logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances, but the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. - Strategy: Partially stop losses on short positions [5] Glass - Market performance: Not mentioned - Basic logic: Domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. The inventory in the factory increases after the festival [5]. - Strategy: The supply - demand surplus continues. The absolute price is low. Short on the medium - term rebound [5] Soda Ash - Market performance: Not mentioned - Basic logic: The inventory in the factory accumulates after the festival, and supply is loose. The demand is mostly rigid [5]. - Strategy: The industry should hedge at high prices. Short on the long - term rebound. Hold the long position of the alkali - glass spread [5]
中辉能化观点-20251023
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-23 02:29