华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have marginal fluctuations and are generally at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with fluctuations, basically recovering the decline of the previous day, and the overall fluctuation was relatively intense. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coke price increase had not been implemented and was still in the game process. [2] Production Situation - This week, some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen, Shanxi stopped production due to safety reasons, and some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia stopped production due to goaf treatment problems, resulting in a decline in coal production. The average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines this week was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and 17,000 tons from the same period last year. [2] Import Situation - According to customs data, China's coking coal imports have been increasing month by month. In September, the import volume was 1.09237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 8.35312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. Among them, the import of Mongolian coal in September was 600,050 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 4.1747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. After the National Day, the average daily customs clearance volume of coal at Ganqimaodu was 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared with September. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices. [3] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the macro - expectations' impact on market sentiment during the Fourth Plenary Session this week, the changes in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills, and the resumption of coal mines. [2][3]