Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price rebounded sharply overnight, and the decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down. Precious metals are in a weak adjustment phase, and it is recommended to wait for a stable buying opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, while aluminum prices are expected to test the previous high resistance. The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situation, and trade negotiations, showing different trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent's December contract rising 4.36%. The decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down in the absence of additional negative factors. The market is in an oversold rebound state, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the $65/barrel resistance level of Brent due to geopolitical fluctuations [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight, fuel oil prices rose significantly following the cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical fluctuations, but the supply will be looser in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The supply of liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly this week. The chemical demand is growing, while the combustion demand is weak. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is boosted by the rebound of crude oil [24]. - Bitumen: The weekly asphalt production rate declined. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the price has rebounded from a low level due to the stop - falling of crude oil [23]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, gold and silver continued their weak adjustment. They are in the process of repairing the overbought situation and may enter a high - level shock stage after the correction. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated with a positive line. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals reflects the resilience of copper prices. The market is waiting for the Sino - US business meeting this week, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. An overseas aluminum plant reduced production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. The short - term aluminum price will continue to test the previous high resistance [5]. - Zinc: The LME zinc inventory is extremely low, and the overseas spot is tight, supporting the London zinc price to break through the $3,000 integer mark again. The domestic zinc price has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand recovery is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down. Technically, the Shanghai nickel price is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - Tin: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated with a negative line. The domestic tin concentrate import volume decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month in September. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - Silicon Iron: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading became active. The total market inventory decreased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and rebound [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures continued to adjust. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated in November [13]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures adjusted downward. The production reduction in November - December is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an opportunity to bet on a rebound [14]. - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene price is expected to continue to rebound. The short - term oil price stop - falling provides rebound power, but the high import volume is the main pressure in the medium term [27]. - Styrene: The crude oil price increase may boost the cost and market sentiment of styrene, but the high inventory suppresses the price [28]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The sharp increase in crude oil prices may boost olefin - chain products. The supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene may increase, and the price may remain at a low level for a long time [29]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the weak reality pattern continues. Caustic soda oscillates narrowly, and short - selling should be cautious [30]. - PX and PTA: The sharp rebound in oil prices will provide rebound power for PX and PTA. The short - term price is expected to rebound, and the mid - term is expected to be in a contango state [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price continued to rebound at night. The short - term price is expected to rebound, but there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term [32]. Building Materials - Glass: The glass price oscillated narrowly. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in the bottom - range [34]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash price oscillated. The supply is high, the demand is slightly reduced, and it is recommended to short at a high level after a rebound [36]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The domestic oil - meal ratio is in a callback state. The export demand of US soybeans is uncertain. It is recommended to look for opportunities where oil is stronger than meal in the medium - long term [38]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: The short - term trend of rapeseed prices is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian trade relations [39]. - Corn: The corn futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [40]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - Eggs: The egg futures price showed an intraday upward - then - downward trend. The market is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [42]. - Cotton: The US cotton price declined. The domestic cotton demand is general, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [43]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to the weather and the growth of sugarcane [44]. - Apples: The apple futures price is strong. The cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Timber: The timber price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and a long - buying strategy is recommended [46]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures price increased. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Livestock - Pigs: The live - pig spot price continued to rebound, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The price is in a rebound cycle, but a short - selling strategy is recommended after the rebound [41]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The spot price of the container freight index (European line) is expected to rise. The short - term upward momentum of the futures price may weaken, but the overall trend is expected to be strong [21].
综合晨报-20251023
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-23 02:33