新能源及有色金属日报：海外电解铝出现减产事件-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, with stable consumption growth and a slight decline in social inventory. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. - For alumina, the supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. The current fundamental data shows few positive factors, and uncertainties need to be watched before and after the Guinea general election on December 28 [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,860 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium remains unchanged at - 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,000 yuan/ton, closed at 21,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,070 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 132,730 lots, and the position was 257,199 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 625,000 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 67,270 tons, with a change of - 2,127 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 482,525 tons, with a change of - 1,600 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On October 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,880 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,809 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, with a change of 34 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,842 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 268,015 lots, and the position was 355,935 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 22, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,700 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,496 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 204 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production of one production line due to electrical equipment failure, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In Shandong, about 10,000 tons were traded at a point - price, and the transaction price was concentrated at 2,790 - 2,800 yuan/ton, mainly non - standard products. The supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. Before and after the Guinea general election on December 28, uncertainties need to be watched [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum (cautiously), neutral on alumina, bullish on aluminum alloy (cautiously). - Arbitrage: Long spread on Shanghai aluminum [9]