FICC日报：美停摆创史上第二长记录，关注贵金属调整持续性-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on multiple factors including the domestic economic situation, Sino - US tariff frictions, the US government shutdown, and commodity market trends. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for commodities in the short - term, and points out potential opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed signs of weakness with characteristics such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The government has proposed measures to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, September's retail sales growth slowed to 3% compared to August, and industrial value - added growth accelerated to 6.5%. Housing prices in 70 cities declined in September, with second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing prices falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare - earth technology and charging special port fees on US ships. Both sides have agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2] - As of October 22, the US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second - longest in history. Economic data releases have been delayed, and the market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed 13.9 trillion yen from last year [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term due to high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints and is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels last week. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. For precious metals, short - term price fluctuations are risky, but there are long - term buying opportunities at low prices. On October 22, spot gold fell below $4,070 per ounce, with a decline of over $70 per ounce in 30 minutes [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - On October 21, Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video call with the EU Commissioner, discussing key economic and trade issues. China's rare - earth export control is a normal measure to improve the export control system [7] - The US government shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first term [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures centered around three pillars: anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security [7] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week, along with changes in other oil product inventories [7] - Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 summit in South Africa in person [7] - Spot gold prices dropped sharply on October 22 [7]