聚烯烃日报：油价反弹，成本端支撑价格小涨-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - PE: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - PP: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - Inter - period: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - Inter - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].