马士基11月新增空班，11月上半月价格有所修正

Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the additional empty sailings in November may promote the better implementation of the price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7] - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge have relatively little impact on the European line [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 22, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1582.90, EC2604 contract is 1171.40, EC2606 contract is 1353.30, EC2608 contract is 1474.80, EC2510 contract is 1136.60, and EC2512 contract is 1788.30 [7] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes show price changes of different shipping companies from Shanghai to Rotterdam in October and November. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 45 quote is 1410/2350; HPL's price in the second half of October is 1185/1935, and in the first half of November is 1535/2535, etc. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] - The SCFIS on October 20, 2025, slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The SCFIS on October 13 was 1031.6, and on October 20 was 1140.38 [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 5 empty sailings and 5 TBNs (expected to turn into empty sailings later), and in December, there are 5 TBNs [3] - As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 963,800 TEU; 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 218,840 TEU [8] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: On October 22, 2025, the Israeli parliament passed a bill in a preliminary vote to extend Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [2] - China will implement counter - measures against US USTR port surcharges next week, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related ships. The number of US - owned, US - flagged, and US - built ships is limited, and the impact on the European line is relatively small [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is affected by factors such as ship delays, the intersection of low - price and high - price ships, and price opacity, leading to large differences in the market's prediction of the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading rhythm is mainly about trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. The additional empty sailings in November reflect the shipping companies' willingness to support prices [6]