国泰海通晨报-20251023

Macro Research - The report emphasizes the increasing impact of alpha factors on China's export growth, highlighting the importance of tariff changes, order overdrafts, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations in addition to external demand factors. It is projected that exports will achieve a growth rate of 1-3% in 2026, with low risk of a decline in alpha factors [2][4][18]. Real Estate Research - The real estate sector remains in a downward trend as of September, with a significant decline in front-end investments, indicating continued pressure on prices. The gap between new and second-hand housing prices is widening, suggesting diminishing marginal benefits from new projects [2][7][8]. - In the first nine months, real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, and even with a potential increase in the last quarter, a double-digit decline is expected for the year. The focus will be on how to mitigate this decline, with urban renewal and new technology infrastructure seen as potential areas for support [7][8]. Biomedicine Research - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is anticipated to experience significant development opportunities driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and capital investment. The market outlook for BCI in healthcare and consumer sectors is promising [2][10][11]. - Domestic policies are actively promoting the development of the BCI industry, with various government departments issuing supportive measures since the 13th Five-Year Plan. This includes guidelines for enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry system by 2030 [11][30]. - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1,000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, totaling close to $10 billion. The global BCI market has grown from $1.2 billion in 2019 to nearly $2 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 13% [12][30].