新能源及有色金属日报：供应端消息扰动叠加消费支撑，碳酸锂短期反弹-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market rebound is mainly influenced by news disturbances and consumption support. Currently, the total inventory is being reduced, and there are many disturbances in the supply - side such as delayed resumption of production and shutdown news. The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support for the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. As the policy disturbances at the mine end weaken, and if the inventory inflection point appears, the market may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 76,000 yuan/ton and closed at 77,120 yuan/ton, with a 1.63% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 376,449 lots, and the open interest was 353,231 lots, up from 310,199 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 1,950 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,019 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,500 - 72,700 yuan/ton, also up 250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 865 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and the overall market trading activity is dull [1]. - New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - Customs data shows that the monthly import of spodumene increased significantly month - on - month, reaching 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe together contributed 81.1% of the total import volume. Australia imported 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; Nigeria imported about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; Zimbabwe imported 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. In addition, imports from South Africa increased significantly to 109,000 tons, while there were no arriving ore volumes from Mali in September [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3]. - Inter - period: None [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4].