农产品日报：郑糖跟随外盘偏弱整理，棉价持续上涨驱动不足-20251023

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is facing short - term downward pressure due to global supply surplus and weak demand, but is expected to be optimistic in the long - term considering low domestic inventory and consumer resilience [2][3] - The sugar market is mainly influenced by overseas trends. Short - term decline is limited by cost, while long - term outlook is bearish due to global surplus expectations [5][6] - The pulp market has limited improvement in fundamentals. Short - term prices are expected to remain at a low level and fluctuate, waiting for the actual implementation of demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton yesterday, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,643 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1108, up 62 from the previous day; the national average price was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1237, up 49 from the previous day. In September 2025, cotton product exports were 602,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.01%, with an export value of $4.983 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 8.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.25%. From January to September 2025, exports were 5.5362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.87%; the export value was $50.408 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.32% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data delays have increased market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern in the new year is expected to be loose. With new cotton on the market and weak US cotton exports, short - term external prices are under pressure. Domestically, cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, starting the new year with low inventory. Seed cotton purchase prices have stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term cotton prices may weaken due to new cotton listing and weak demand, but are expected to be positive in the long - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5426 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 324, down 8 from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 304, up 2 from the previous day. Datagro expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the next season (April 2026 - March 2027) to reach 43.2 million tons, an increase from the current expected 41.42 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell yesterday. Brazilian sugar production was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but new - season production may be lower than expected, and the price is near the cost line, limiting the downward space [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term decline is limited by cost, but long - term outlook is bearish due to global surplus expectations [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5220 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP11 + 380, down 50 from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP11 - 225, down 25 from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [6][7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price rose yesterday. Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on supply. Global supply pressure remains, and domestic port inventory is high. Demand in Europe, the US, and China is weak, and the paper industry is in surplus, with low paper mill operating rates [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]